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A variety of demographic, clinical and paraclinical factors influence the risk of developing SPMS, and have been investigated in multiple studies,1–3. You can find an overview of the findings below.

 

Factors independently associated with increased risk of progression to SPMS include:*1

Hourglass image for older age

Older age
(mean 38.4 years) (HR 1.02; p<0.001)

Clock, arrow and target icon for longer disease duration

Longer disease duration
(HR 1.01; p=0.038)

Barchart and diagonal upwards arrow icon for higher level of disability

Higher level of disability
(EDSS score) (HR 1.30; p<0.001)

Cogs icon for rapid disability trajectory

Rapid disability trajectory
(HR 2.82; p<0.001)

Plus sign in circular arrows icon for high number of relapses

High number of relapses in the previous year
(HR 1.07; p=0.010)

 

*A total of 15,717 patients were included in the primary analysis.

  • The risk of developing SPMS increases with age, duration of illness and worsening disability1–3
  • Age at disease onset is considered one of the best indicators of SPMS conversion1
    • A previous study reported a mean age of SPMS onset of 34.2 years (p=0.02) (n=59),3 however due to the risk factors identified above, the likelihood of conversion will increase throughout a patient’s disease course1
  • There is some evidence to suggest a larger number of cortical lesions at onset of disease predict a higher risk of SPMS and shorter latency to progression3
    • People with SPMS and with 2 (HR 2.16), 5 (HR 4.79), and 7 (HR 12.3) lesions had 2-, 4-, and 12-fold higher hazard of secondary progression, respectively3
  • Some studies indicate that male sex may be associated with higher risk of progression to SPMS1

 

EDSS, Expanded Disability Status Scale; HR, hazard ratio; SPMS, secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

References

  1. Fambiatos A, et al. Mult Scler. 2019;26(1):79–90.
  2. Gross HJ, Watson C. Neuropsychiatr Dis Treat. 2017;13:1349–1357.
  3. Scalfari A, et al. Neurology. 2018;90(24):e2107–e2118.
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UK | December 2021 | 145899
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